Weekapaug, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

580
FXUS61 KBOX 111847
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
247 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday night. Tonight will
be chilly across interior Massachusetts otherwise comfortable
temperatures and dry conditions on Monday. The threat for scattered
showers will increase for the second half of the week...but not
expecting a washout with plenty of dry weather mixed in too. It will
also turn a bit humid by late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Point:

* Frost Advisory for interior Massachusetts late tonight.

No weather concerns for the second-half of Mother`s Day. Northwest
gusts will continue through the rest of the day, but will begin to
diminish after sunset.

Wind becomes light to calm tonight and with the combination of clear
skies, should have good radiational cooling across the region. This
is due in part to surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes
expanding into southern New England. Because of this, leaned heavily
on the CONSMOS to derive the overnight lows, which are expected to
fall into the 30s and lower 40s across most of the region. With the
coldest areas of northwest Massachusetts falling into the low 30s.
While not expecting a hard freeze, cannot rule out areas of frost
across interior Massachusetts, thus a Frost Advisory from midnight
to 6am Monday has been issued for Franklin and Hampshire Counties.
Thinking the urban core of Boston remains "warmest" with lows in the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

A chilly morning will trend warmer by the afternoon, the question is
how warm do we get. Latest guidance suggests the boundary layer may
remain shallow, extending 950mb to 900mb with a thermal inversion
above. That said, if this layer warms quicker it could deepen the
boundary layer thus tap into the warmer 850mb layer. Expecting highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s, cooler at the coast due to the onshore
south/southwesterly winds. Not as gusty, but will have winds gusting
between 20 and 25 mph. In general a sunny day with high pressure and
a mid-level ridge to the west. Eventually high clouds stream in from
the southwest late Monday afternoon and continues into the overnight
hours. The overnight is mild due to increasing cloud cover and WAA
aloft. Nighttime lows only drop to the low and middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Pleasant May weather for much of the week with highs in the 70s
  away from the immediate coast and perhaps 80-85 by Fri and/or Sat

* Scattered showers at times for the second half of the week along
  with increasing humidity...but a washout is not expected

* Greatest risk for a few thunderstorms appears to be Fri and/or Sat

Details...

Upper level ridge axis shifts east of the region for the second half
of the week. Shortwave energy will follow bringing the risk for
scattered showers at times...mainly for the latter part of the week.
That being said...the shortwave energy tends to dampen out a bit on
approach so not expecting a washout with plenty of dry weather mixed
in too. Warm advection will allow for some low level moisture return
and increasing humidity for the second half of the week. This will
also result in a risk for some low clouds/fog patches especially
during the overnight and early morning hours.

Pleasant temperatures are on tap for the region too with highs
mainly in the 70s...except cooler at times near the immediate coast
with onshore flow. We may see high temps reach 80-85 in some locales
by Fri and/or Sat and it will feel summerlike with the increasing
humidity. While it is a long way off...the best chance for a few
thunderstorms will be Fri and/or Sat when somewhat better
instability exists. Whether there ends up being a convective threat
remains to be seen and will revolve around the timing of shortwave
energy and other mesoscale factors.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

Tonight...High Confidence.

Dry and VFR. Northwest gusts continue through 00z then diminish
becoming light and variable to calm, wind direction becomes
south-southwest by daybreak.

Monday...High Confidence.

Dry and VFR. Prior to 15z, a light seabreeze could develop along the
east coast of Massachusetts, after 15z south-southwest winds
between 8 to 12 knots and gusts 20 to 22 knots.

Monday Night...High Confidence.

Increasing clouds from the southwest to northeast, through dry,
with VFR CIGs. Southwest winds diminish, becoming northerly
between 5 to 8 knots.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds at 20-25 knots this afternoon. A low-chance
for a seabreeze tomorrow morning before 15z, then SW gusts
developing after 18z 20 to 25 knots.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds at 15-20 knots. Light to calm winds
overnight.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR
possible. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Monday Night...High Confidence.

High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes tonight into
Monday then pushes offshore Monday night. Gusty northwest wind this
afternoon diminishes after sunset, becoming a southwest wind for
Monday. Periodic gust on Monday reach 20 to 25 knots and seas
tonight into Monday night are 1-3 feet.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Dooley
MARINE...Frank/Dooley